This paper, coauthored by Shawn Bushway, is published in the Journal of Human Resources at https://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2024/12/02/jhr.1222-12719R3

We find that individuals involved in low-level crime who receive prison sentences are more likely to be re-imprisoned for technical violations during their post-release supervision, rather than for new offenses, compared to those who receive non-prison sentences. We identify the extent and cost of this incapacitation effect among individuals with similar criminal histories using exogenous variation in sentence type from discontinuities in Michigan Sentencing Guide-lines. Higher re-imprisonment adds 15% more prison days to the original sentence while only low-level crimes appear to be averted. These results suggest that re-imprisonment for technical parole violations does not prevent serious crime.